Archive for the 'Elections' Category

Poulton North by-election analysis

Although the Poulton North by-election happened several weeks ago, I think it’s worth commenting on the result and why I think such a result came about.

The by-election results:

Liberal Democrat 1,106
Labour 895
Conservative 190
UK Independence Party (James Ashington) 97

The first thing that is interesting is that Labour failed to gain this seat, something which I thought was a forgone conclusion. Either they ran a bad campaign, with their very young candidate going on holiday during the campaign not helping, or the Liberal Democrats had a great candidate and ran another trademark Lib Dem by-election campaign. I suspect both played a part.

The UKIP result was disappointing, as we did put a large amount of resources into the area, including postal vote letters, personalised leaflets and a visit from our North West MEP. We even got plenty of press coverage and had a fantastic candidate in James Ashington. What went wrong?

My theory is that given the history of the ward, where there are normally only three candidates, people are very reluctant to stray from the main three parties, to expand on this slightly, it shows that no matter how good your campaign is, unless you have a solid consistent campaign all year round, you will get very far. Voters really do need to feel that they can trust a party and a candidate with their vote, even if there is still little chance in winning.

A fair few people in UKIP still think they can turn up to an election the week before and win the seat. The Poulton North result proves that if you have that mentality, you will get very far.

Learning from our mistakes

Despite huge amounts of effort, UKIP has always struggled to get organised at a regional level. From organising large amounts of candidates, to providing support with leaflets, we have always found it hard and had to work right up to the very last second to make things work.

However, this year in the North West we are moving forward at an incredible rate, thanks to some fantastic work from the North West team and the many hard working branch and county chairmen all over the region.

At the next local elections in 2012, I expect to see a huge improvement in the number of candidates we field and a huge improvement in the quality of the leaflets we produce, not to mention the rate at which we can get the leaflets out to voters.

Looking at the North West I really do see much more of a professional operation than say three years ago. My ambition is to see the North West become UKIP’s ‘Flagship’ region in terms of how the party should operate at a regional level. Only time will tell, but the sheer amount of hard work that members are putting into the region from Cumbria right down to Crewe give it a good chance of achieving that target.

Liberal Democrats: Misleading here!

How ironic that the Liberal Democrats were the ones to submit an election petition against the result in Oldham East & Saddleworth. Don’t get me wrong, I do think the campaign the Labour team ran in Oldham East and Saddleworth was breaking the law, but the Liberal Democrats must be the worst party for misleading the public in elections.

In every by-election I have campaigned in, and there are many, the Lib Dems are constantly the worst offenders. I remember in the Reddish North by-election in 2009, the Lib Dems ran an ‘It’s a two horse race’ campaign, even though they came 4th in the previous election, behind the BNP.  I have the leaflet somewhere and will put it up.

That example is just the tip of the iceberg.  I have heard many stories of Lib Dem candidates putting out personal attack letters on the eve of poll or on polling day itself, making sure parties cannot respond to personal attacks.

In one by-election in Sheffield the Lib Dems put out a leaflet claiming that ‘Long term UKIP voters are switching to the Liberal Democrats’. I think it’s unlikely that an anti-EU voter would vote for one of the most pro EU parties, whatever the Lib Dem candidates local policies are. It’s proven that a lot of UKIP voters, certainly the long term supporters, vote for UKIP on principle, not tactically.

It is this use of dirty tactics that makes me dislike most Lib Dem activists, in fact, there is only one Lib Dem I actually like and that is Northenden Councillor Martin Eakins.

Coming back to Oldham East & Saddleworth, the Liberal Democrats are yet again up to their old tricks. They have put out a bar chart (pictured) making it look like only the Labour party and the Lib Dems can win, when it is clearly a three way marginal. The Conservatives only came around 2,000 votes behind the Lib Dems in May.

I really can’t wait for the Liberal Democrats turn to be at the hands of an election petition, based on their current campaigning tactics, it might not be long!



More design work

I’ve Had quite a busy few days. I have had a few newsletters for branches to design as well as the Parish Council newsletter that will be going out this month. On top of this, I’m currently working on an MEP newsletter to go out in the North West.

With a by-election now set to take place in the Oldham East & Saddleworth constituency, I will be running the online aspect of the campaign which will include a brand new campaign website. I’m actually looking forward to this campaign as it gives me a chance to run a dynamic website that should keep up with the campaign on the ground.

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By-election in Wythenshawe?

I have heard that Labour Councillor Eddie McCulley has recently passed away. He represented the Baguley ward in the Wythenshawe & Sale East constituency.

This means that at some point a by-election will be held in the future. As the Chairman of the UKIP Wythenshawe & Sale East branch, I am certainly hoping to field a candidate when the by-election is called. I will be keeping in touch with Manchester City Council’s Electoral Services Unit to ensure we know what is going on.

Previous results:

Manchester MBC, Baguley Ward. 2010

Labour 2,263 (47.1%)
Lib Dem 1,178  (24.5%)
Con 777 (16.2%)
UKIP 329 (6.8%)
Green 134 (2.8%)
Soc Alt 123  (2.7%)

Baxenden leaflet

The leaflet for the Baxenden by-election is now complete. Now this is finished I can move on to some more projects i’m working on. However, with more by-elections on the horizon I had better make the most of my time!

Two more North West vacancies

There are a further two more vacancies in Councils around the North West tonight. The first one is in Blackpool UA, Stanley Ward. Whilst the second is in West Lancashire BC, Derby ward. I expect UKIP to be fielding candidates in both by-elections when they are called.

The one in Blackpool UA, is covered by the Blackpool North & Cleavelys branch and should be able to put in a decent campaign. I expect I will be desigining the election material for the by-elections which will give me another chace to perfect the ‘Informer’ leaflets that are being used at the moment.

Election leaflets and the outlook for November

UKIP will be standing in a few more by-elections in November and December. We should be fielding candidates in all four of the upcoming by-elections in the North West, meaning that I have quite a bit of leaflet designing to do!

As well as designing leaflets, there are a few other projects I would like to complete by the end of November, making the next four weeks quite busy for me. I will also have a Parish Council meeting to attend at the start of the month, as well as speaking at a branch in the North West this Wednesday coming up.

Everything I plan to do should give me ample things to write about on this site, so I should have regular updates.

The end of the hustings

Last Friday (15th Oct) saw an end to the UKIP leadership hustings. I did attend the next three hustings after Peterborough, in Rotherham, Birmingham & Rainhill but all of them were a fairly similar repeat to the Peterborough hustings.

Nigel as usual, was in top form in all hustings that I attended, with David Campbell-Bannerman also put in a few solid performances. Tim was terrible as usual and Winston, well, was just Winston!

A few candidates are playing some dirty tricks in this campaign, from DCB getting Nigel pulled off Question Time, to candidates stating certain high profile members are switching sides. All this of course is to be expected, but now the hustings are over, all we need to wait for now is the final result on the 5th November.

The 5th will be an exciting time for the party, whoever wins, a fresh new team will be brought into the party, win an aim of making it even more electable. Given that when a new leader will be elected, an entire team is brought in, the party could move in several new directions. This alone could make this leadership election the most important internal election in its history.

Leadership hustings round-up: Peterborough

Today I travelled down to Peterborough to attend the UKIP leadership hustings, which were a lot better organised that the hustings I attended back in 2009, as well as a lot better attended.  The hustings took place in a very nice hotel, that I think judging by its architecture was at some stage, a stately home.

In my head, I already knew who I wanted to vote for, but I still went into the room with an open mind. Clearly if the other candidates were as good as their supporters say they are, then there must be a chance that I would be persuaded to vote for them?

Winston McKenzie gave the first opening speech out of the candidates, with one of his trademark talks, full of passion and motivation, something that we have all come to expect from him.

Next it was Nigel’s turn, who delivered a great introduction and charmed everyone with his energy and enthusiasm. In his opening speech, he put the other candidates on the back foot by simply saying to the audience ‘Out of all the candidates on this platform, who would Ed Milliband, David Cameron and Nick Clegg fear the most in a leadership debate?’ Nigel succinctly pointed out that the leaders’ debate that took place for the General Election, would likely take place for the next European elections, which UKIP will take part in, given our 2nd place in ’09 and that it will be vital the UKIP leader do well in these debates, if the party is to do well.

Next up was Tim Congdon, who I had never heard speak before. You could tell instantly that he was not a natural speaker, with some of his key points for his leadership bid lost in his nervous style of speaking. All of the people present picked up on this. The stark contrast between Nigel and Tim was obvious, and based on his speech delivery and some of his messages, I doubt Tim will walk away with the UKIP leadership, despite his good intentions.

David Campbell-Bannerman took to the floor after Tim, with a solid performance and clear aims for what he wants to achieve. I was actually quite impressed with DCB’s speech and it is obvious that he has gained lots more speaking experience since his first speeches when he was elected to the European Parliament. David will gain lots of support with pushing the message that ‘policies will make UKIP a credible party’, something that I do think the party should continue to promote.

Throughout the questions the debate was well managed and the candidates mostly well behaved. There were some negative comments from Tim about party membership figures, and on one occasion made an attack on Nigel. Apart from this, all the other candidates answered the questions without bringing negativity into it, which was nice to see.

Although no candidate was a ‘clear winner’, Nigel had received the most applause in most questions, but there was plenty of support for the other two serious candidates, Tim and David.

To sum up, despite people say that Tim is in the running for the leadership, I doubt he has what it takes to be taken as a serious leadership contender. It’s a two horse race as they say, between David Campbell-Bannerman and Nigel Farage. David still has a lot to do if he wants to topple Nigel, who has mobilised his supporters in great numbers.

What happened in Morecambe?

You might be aware that I have spent some time designing leaflets and campaigning in the recent Harbour ward by-election, which took place a few days ago. The results were:

Lancaster CC, Harbour ward.

Morecambe Bay Independents 287 (47.7%, +10.6%)
Conservative 161 (26.7%, +7.5%)
UKIP (Dr Fred McGlade) 86 (14.3%, +14.3%)
Liberal Democrats 68 (11.3%, + 11.3%)


Majority 126, turnout 12%

MBI hold

As I discussed in a previous post, Labour had failed to stand a candidate due to a paperwork error, which should of meant that Labour voters would have to vote for another party. However, what seemed to of happened instead, looking at the poor 12% turnout, is that almost all Labour voters didn’t bother to vote, you would naturally expect some fall in the number of labour voters, but never almost all of them. In my opinion they should of voted despite there not being a Labour candidate, as they still have to put up with the candidate that is elected in the end. If I had to vote in an election where there was no UKIP candidate, I would at least vote for the candidate that had some of my core beliefs.

Apart from the Morecambe Bay Independents, who without interference from Labour voters would retain the seat, the other parties relied on attracting Labour voters to have even a slight chance of winning. This was also a part of our strategy in the Harbour ward which was the only viable way of toppling the MBI candidate. When Labour voters failed to turnout, it is clear the parties each retained their core vote, leaving us to squeeze what votes we could get from the others.

All things considered, we did quite well to achieve 14.3%. It is clear that people are opening up to the idea of voting for UKIP, we just need to make sure we keep their support.

Another busy week

I did hope to update my blog a lot sooner, so I do apologise. This week has been very busy, especially the past two days.

The next edition of the North West newsletter, which I design and edit, will be going to print sometime next week. As you can imagine, a week before it needs to be finalised, I have spent quite some time chasing articles and photos from contributors as well as ensuring all of the latest updates about what is going on in the region are also squeezed in somewhere.

Also, the Harbour by-election, (Which I will cover in detail in a post later on), has required me to spend some of my time updating the North West website with some new graphics, as well as run the North West region’s online presence on Twitter and Facebook throughout polling day.

Today I also managed to get the go ahead for a new way to communicate with the members, which should improve communication between the regional office and the grass roots members. But that is all I can reveal on here!

To top off my day, I managed to get two questions for the EU Commission drafted, which with any luck, will expose the European Union even further as the corrupt, undemocratic, wasteful bureaucracy that it is.

I already have a few things I want to write about over the next few days, so my blog should be updated every day at the very least throughout the next seven days.

Harbour ward canvassing

The weather was perfect for an afternoon of canvassing. I joined five other party members on the doorstep after a quick briefing at the North West HQ.

So far, there has been very little activity from other political parties. The Morecambe Bay Independents, who hold the seat, had only put out a black and white risograph leaflet, not the quality you would expect from a political party trying to defend a seat.

The Conservatives put out a leaflet that was sketchy on details and real promises for the area, a typical standard leaflet from there HQ no doubt.

I hadn’t seen anything from the Lib Dems, but I’m sure they will do something before polling day.

Labour had put out a leaflet prior to the nomination deadline, but since they failed to get there nomination papers sorted out on time. Nothing.

We had put out a full colour A4 poster leaflet, which will be followed up with a second full colour A4 Leaflet.

The lack of activity by the others parties meant that we were the first and so far, only party canvassing. Response on the door step was quite good, you could tell it was a safe Labour ward though, but once you explained that Labour were not standing, and talked about the problems in the local area, most voters said they would consider voting for UKIP, with a fair proportion saying they will be voting UKIP.

Working my way around the ward, I saw several UKIP posters, which suggests that we will do well come polling day on the 7th October.

Depending on how well the second leaflet goes down, we could very well end up taking the seat.

Previous results in the Harbour ward:
2003 result Lab 585/558/526 MBI 445/404 Con 267 Green 94
2007 result MBI 605/463/429 Lab 531/492/472 Con 296/252/230 Green 89

North West HQ

I was in the North West office today, managed to finish the final leaflet for the Harbour ward by-election. There is also lots of work going on in the office to get ready for the next set of local elections in May next year, it is truly a huge undertaking.

I’m canvassing in the Harbour ward tomorrow, which given the demographics of the area, and the lack of a Labour candidate, will make tomorrow very interesting.

Harbour by-election

The Harbour by-election will be very interesting! Labour have not put up a candidate. There isn’t even a Green or BNP candidate standing. Only four parties will be contesting this election: UKIP, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and Morecambe Bay Independents. We really do have a good chance of getting a decent result.

I spent some time this morning designing the first leaflet to be distributed in the Harbour ward and I’m quite happy with it. Of course, I can’t reveal what is in the leaflet, but I’m sure it will have the right effect on the voters.